Would Turkey's withdrawal from NATO be in NATO's favor or against it?
Would Turkey’s withdrawal from NATO be in NATO’s favor or against it?
Posted on May 10, 2026 by Dtesca
Would Turkey’s withdrawal from NATO be in NATO’s favor or against it?
Such a withdrawal could lead to the complete collapse of NATO’s southern flank and a serious risk to European security, as it would create the possibility of Turkey drawing closer to the Eurasian bloc (Russia-China axis). Therefore, the vast majority of experts agree that a NATO without Turkey would become a much weaker and more dysfunctional structure.
Turkey’s withdrawal from NATO is a scenario that would have very critical consequences for the alliance in terms of both military and strategic balances. We can analyze the aspects of this situation that could be in favor of and against NATO as follows:
Situations Against NATO (Critical Losses)
Turkey’s withdrawal is seen as a serious weakening for NATO. The main reasons for this are as follows:
Geopolitical and Strategic Location: Turkey is situated at the intersection of the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean. Its control over the straits (Montreux Convention) is vital for NATO’s Black Sea security and its strategy to contain Russia.
Military Strength: Turkey has the second largest army in NATO. It is one of the most active members of the alliance in terms of both personnel numbers and operational experience (counterterrorism, cross-border operations).
Forward Bases and Logistics: Critical facilities such as Incirlik and Kürecik are indispensable for NATO’s operations in the Middle East and its missile defense systems. The loss of these facilities would significantly restrict the alliance’s intelligence and operational capabilities in the region.
Balancing Factor: Turkey’s departure would mean the destruction of a crucial bridge between the Western bloc and the Islamic and Turkic worlds. This could damage NATO’s image as a “global security actor.” Arguments in Favor of NATO
While some Western strategists argue that Turkey’s departure could resolve some “incompatibilities” within NATO, these views are generally in the minority:
Decision-Making Mechanism: NATO is an institution that makes decisions by consensus. Turkey’s vetoes on certain issues (e.g., Swedish/Finnish memberships or defense industry restrictions) or differing foreign policy preferences can sometimes be seen as a “slowing down” factor within the alliance. Turkey’s departure could create a more homogeneous political structure among the remaining members.
Values Compatibility: Some circles argue that reducing the differences between Western liberal values and current policies would increase solidarity within the alliance. General Assessment
In conclusion, the scales tip overwhelmingly against Turkey’s departure from NATO. The loss of Turkey would mean not only the loss of a member for NATO, but also a loss of strategic depth, military deterrence, and geographical superiority.
Such a separation could lead to the complete collapse of NATO’s southern flank and seriously jeopardize European security, as it would create the possibility of Turkey drawing closer to the Eurasian bloc (the Russia-China axis). Therefore, the vast majority of experts agree that a NATO without Turkey would become a much weaker and more dysfunctional structure.
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